Strategic Crossroads: External Powers Competition in the Horn of Africa and the Implications for Ethiopia’s National Interests
Abstract
The Horn of Africa has emerged as one of the world’s most strategically contested regions since 2000, with unprecedented militarisation featuring 15 foreign military bases established by 11 external powers, hosting over 10,500 foreign troops and representing $4.3 billion in military infrastructure investment. This article examines the intensifying competition among the United States, China, Russia, and Middle Eastern powers and analyses its multifaceted impact on Ethiopia's national interests through analysis of spatial distribution patterns, purpose classification networks, and geopolitical alignments. The research reveals that 67% of foreign bases and 86% of foreign forces are positioned within 500 kilometres of Ethiopia's borders, creating concentric rings of military presence around Africa's second-most populous nation that hosts no foreign bases itself. Purpose classification network analysis demonstrates divergent yet overlapping objectives among external powers: counter-terrorism operations (33% of bases), anti-piracy missions (27%), regional conflict interventions (20%), and strategic power projection (13%), each creating distinct implications for Ethiopian security and development efforts. Through systematic examination of military deployments, economic investments, and diplomatic relationships, the study demonstrates that while external power rivalry offers Ethiopia unprecedented opportunities for infrastructure development, economic advancement, and diplomatic leverage, it fundamentally alters the regional security architecture and poses significant challenges to sovereignty, regional stability, and strategic autonomy. Ethiopia faces the complex challenge of navigating between competing external powers while maintaining its traditional non-aligned foreign policy stance, creating sovereignty challenges, intelligence vulnerabilities, and risks of conflict spillover. The analysis identifies four strategic response options-reinforced non-alignment, selective multi-alignment, regional leadership, and issue-based coalition building. Finally, the paper concludes that Ethiopia’s ability to protect and advance its national interests will depend on developing a sophisticated foreign policy framework that transforms regional competition from a zero-sum game into opportunities for multilateral cooperation and development, with broader implications for how developing countries navigate great power competition in an increasingly multipolar world.
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